SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats

High: 6,770.35
Low: 6,521.92
Close: 6,602.98
Change: –1.95%
ATH: 6,920.34 (Oct 29)

This week was almost a straight beeline down, aside from Thursday’s gap up and selloff. So now the task is to look at the full range of probabilities for the coming week. My medium-term (next several months) sentiment still leans bearish, and if we do rise next week, I’m expecting it to be part of the natural up and down that happens inside a broader decline rather than the start of a meaningful rise. But each week we get new data, and new levels to fold in…like a fun mystery to solve! 😅 🧐 

Monthly View

On the monthly chart, price is sitting around the 6,500 area, so my question is whether this is just the first stopping point in a larger decline. We could easily put in another red candle in December. There’s a fresh bearish cross on the monthly SRSI, and while those crosses can shift or uncross, we also still have ongoing bearish divergence which supports the idea that we could continue lower.

I’m watching the 6,100 area because it lines up with several prior highs, and if we lose the monthly 10 EMA, that’s the next place I’d anticipate buyers to show up. I can see this level coming into play over the next one to two monthly candles if sellers stay in control.

A peek further out: I have a long-term trendline anchored in March 2020, which was tested during the 2022 bear market and again in the April 2025 pullback. It sits much lower and only becomes relevant if we shift into a broader bear phase.

Weekly View

On the weekly chart, that same 6,500 level from the monthly lines up with the weekly 20 EMA. So it wasn’t surprising to see buyers step in around that area. I shaded the zone between 6,550 and 6,800 because this is where price has been moving back and forth. If we break below 6,500 without a bounce or some kind of choppy sideways action, the next level I’d be looking at is around 6,400, which is the area price spent time in between July and September.

The SRSI is still heading down, so we can continue drifting lower even if we chop sideways. Though, continuing the rise from Friday’s pivot also remains a possibility. With that said, this is where the weekly stays high-level for me, and from here we can get more granular by taking a closer look at the daily and hourly scenarios!

Daily View

On the daily chart, the structure is still in a downtrend. Price is underneath the moving averages, though we did find support at the weekly 20 EMA. The daily SRSI has reset, so this is one of those spots where the market can bounce, even if just for a few days or a week.

I’m still cautious about trusting a longer term rise, so keep my downside bias in mind as you read this. If the charts change, I’ll shift with them. The daily can absolutely move up inside a broader decline, like the 4 day rise we saw from the November 7th pivot low. So we could be in a spot where the daily wants to rise or digest the decline without necessarily confirming any shift out of the downtrend yet.

Next Week’s Scenarios via the Hourly Chart

This week I’m using the hourly chart to break down the scenarios. I’ve got a bunch of lines, double downtrend lines, shaded zones, etc., and while it looks like madness, it’s really just the result of all the gaps and volatility we’ve had. I’ve drawn a lower downtrend line where the majority of the price remained below during the decline, while the upper downtrend line connects the outliers.

Scenario 1: If we move up from here

If this pivot off the weekly 20 EMA turns into a short-term rise, the first thing I’d want to see is a break above 6,635, which gets us out of the shaded box. From there, price would need to break above the lower hourly downtrend line. The declining 50 SMA is coming down into that same area, so we may pause there. If buyers stay in control, the next place I’d reassess is around 6,730, which lines up with the next shaded zone on my chart.

Upside checkpoints:

• Break above 6,635

• Clear the lower downtrend line

• Reaction at the declining 50 SMA

• Reassess near 6,730

Scenario 2: If the decline continues

Friday’s late-day move supports more downside. We hit the lower downtrend line and sold off. For the decline to continue, price would need to break the weekly 20 EMA. If that happens, selling could accelerate since anyone who bought Friday’s bounce probably won’t hold below that level.

The next downside area I’m watching is 6,478, where we had a small reaction earlier, and then 6,428, which was the July rejection area. That range (6,478 to 6,428) makes sense as a landing zone if sellers stay in control.

Downside checkpoints:

• Lose the weekly 20 EMA

• Watch for accelerated selling

• Targets: 6,478 → 6,428

Scenario 3: A choppy wide range

We could also get a tug-of-war week, which would reset the moving averages and the SRSI before the next move. Given how sharp the swings have been, the range could be wide, around 2.5% or more.

That would look like back-and-forth around 6,600, quick pops above the downtrend lines that don’t hold, and fast retreats back into the range. Eventually the range narrows as we get closer to the next directional move.

Chop checkpoints:

• Back-and-forth around 6,600

• Failed pushes above downtrend lines

• MAs catching up and flattening

• Range tightening as the chart sets up

If I Had to Sum Up My Personal Take on the Week Ahead in One Run-On Sentence:

I think we could get a push up on Monday and climb for a day or two, with the first major resistance around 6,700, and while we could see an extension toward 6,800, I wouldn’t be surprised to see price retrace or stall back near 6,700 and drift into a flatter stretch to finish out the week.

Closing Thoughts

While I have a bearish outlook, the broader bullish structure hasn’t broken. On the weekly chart we found support at the 20 EMA, which technically keeps the larger uptrend intact. The monthly is still putting in its first red candle, and while it is extended from its 10 EMA, we’ll need to see follow-through from sellers in December to support further downside.

Charts > Your Bias.

Be kind to yourselves,

Emanuela

PS. A snack I’m currently obsessed with (not sponsored, not affiliated, just sharing 😉).