The other day, someone in the Trader Reset Community posted about how much she’s been struggling to stay profitable. Later, I found out she has been trading for just over a year, and my first thought was: Girrrrlllll...do you know what I was doing in my first year? 😂
I was crying and losing tens of thousands of dollars. I was dabbling, I was gambling, and I was learning. And when I started seeing profits, I struggled to grow and sustain them. She is already at the seeing-profits part. That is incredible!
But you just don’t know what you don’t know yet. And you only discover what you don’t know when you get to work! My path does not need to be your path. In fact, I hope to shortcut some of the trials of trading by continuing to share what I know and what I learn as I go.
Things began to change for me when I started creating a process around my trading. I created my trading plan. The first version had so many notes and was all over the place, but it was the first time I realized how much goes into a single decision. I kept organizing my thoughts and working to uncover the layers and layers of my strategy and my psyche, and I continue to do that now. Eventually, I got to a place where, when I was wrong, I understood why, and it wasn’t just “this is the game” or “this is the market.”
I hope I can help shorten the learning curve through things like my trading plan guide, answering questions in the community, and reviewing trades with my coaching group. But you still have to show up and put in the work. Don’t let another week go by without asking yourself: What went well? What were the errors? What is the one focus or adjustment you need to make going into this week to increase profitability or progress?
And if you are still struggling, don’t let that frustration erase the evidence that you are progressing. You may be doing much better than you realize, even if it is taking longer or feeling different from the version you pictured. Just keep going!! 🫶🏽 🥳
SPX Review and Outlook
SPX spent most of this week digesting the move from the July 30th pivot. Price moved sideways above the prior range, popped out of that smaller range on Thursday, and then came back to retest the top of it on Friday.
Thursday’s high was 7,816.70, and so far that retest around the top of the smaller box is holding. Structurally, this still looks bullish to me.
SPX Daily Chart
Here are this week’s potential scenarios:
Continue Drifting Higher
price holds above the top of the smaller box around 7,775 and continues building
this could look like price riding the 5 EMA higher, maybe with quick shallow pullbacks or slight undercuts along the way
Digest Sideways Above the Prior Range
price holds above the prior range, but spends more time digesting sideways
this could look more like sideways and up, sideways and up, instead of a straight(er) shot higher like in April/May
Retest 7,700
price pulls back toward the 7,700 area / 10 EMA
if buyers step in there, that could still be a shallow retest and keep the upside structure in place
if price loses 7,700, then I’d want to see how it behaves around the next levels below
Pull Back Toward 7,600 / 7,555
price pulls back deeper toward the prior breakout area
7,600 was the prior high area, and 7,555 was the upper part of the old range
a pullback there would not automatically reverse the upside, but it would make the move look less smooth and more choppy
if price falls back into the old range and struggles to pop back out, that would give me pause about upside continuing from here
I’m still leaning bullish seeing how SPX is holding above the prior range and continuing to drift higher. I’m mostly observing how we climb from here. We could ride along the 5 EMA with shallow pullbacks. We may stay a little choppier, which could look more like a wider grind up, where price is still stair-stepping up but moving in more of an upward channel. Now, if we do stay choppy, selling is not completely off the table and individual stocks may give us downside trades. But right now, I’m still mostly looking to the upside.
If you want to look at the market together, we meet Monday at 9 a.m. for Morning Market Review inside the free community!
Strategy Workshop & The Trading Room @ OVTLYR
On Thursday, August 20, from 7:00 to 8:00 p.m. ET, I’m hosting a free workshop where I’ll review my Base Breakout and Retest strategy setups through chart examples. This is the strategy I’m using in the U.S. Investing Championship, where I’m currently in fourth place.
You can find this event, along with others like my Morning Market Review, inside The Trader Reset Community. If you’re not ready to join the community but would still like to attend the workshop, just hit reply and I’ll send you the direct link.
Also on August 20th, I’m back on OVTLYR with Christopher Uhl for their Trading Room session! Come tune-in at 9am EST. You can find their show here.
Resources and how to work with me:
