We have two months left in the year! I'm currently at a 168% return YTD, and I'd love to get back over 200% before the United States Investment Championship ends.

When I entered the competition this year, my goal was to produce another year of triple-digit returns to continue building my track record and credibility, especially as I continue coaching traders. And because I struggled quite a bit toward the end of last year, going for one of the top spots wasn't even on my mind. But as the year went on, I couldn't resist wanting to push for more. 😆

At the same time, I've been working toward another goal: breaking through what I've typically earned from trading. As I shared last week, I've been trying to incorporate some new things, and I underestimated the learning curve of developing new skills while managing everything I already do.

So I've had two things competing for my attention:

Both are super important to me, but with two months left, I've decided to prioritize the competition and get back to what I know and do well. I have a strategy that works, and I want to focus on executing it as well as possible. I'll have plenty of time to continue exploring other ways to take my trading to another level after the competition.

I'll be head down these next two months, so please send all the good luck vibes my way! 🤞

Last week I said that if we got a move up, my opinion was that it would be a bounce versus a reversal. We got that bounce into the moving averages and then continued to sell.

I share the same idea this week. If you look at the charts overall, we could be starting to stair-step lower and potentially enter a more sustained downtrend. We’re seeing continued weakness, particularly in tech.

But for us as short-term traders, we still assess at each level because price travels from level to level. One thing I have written in my trading plan is to think about positioning against a level, or waiting for price to get to a key level before taking the trade. If you take a trade when price is between levels, just know that there is still room for price to move lower or higher from where you’re trading before it’s ready to make its “full move.”

The other reminder I have written in my plan is that after a strong run comes a period of digestion. So even if your opinion is that this decline is “done”…it was a substantial move. There will likely be some period of sideways digestion, whether that happens over days or weeks.

SPX Levels

7,629: First level back above.

7,582: Area price stopped against on Friday.

7,506: Next level underneath if selling continues.

7,314: Larger level below that.

7,815: Upper end of the prior range.

Nasdaq dropped out of the range it had been holding since August and is now sitting between 25,783 and 25,019. We could retrace back toward 25,783, or if tech continues selling, the next levels below are 25,019 and 24,443.

Nasdaq Levels

25,783: Bottom of the prior range.

25,019: Next level below.

24,443: Lower level underneath that.

The Dow came down to 51,618 on Friday and started to move up from that level during the last few hours of the day.

If it continues higher, I have two hourly levels marked at 52,094 and 52,392. Those are areas where we can assess whether price is pressing up and then rolling back over, or continuing to build from 51,618.

If weakness continues, I’m looking toward 50,492, which is also around the daily 200 SMA and weekly 50 SMA.

Dow Levels

51,618: Level price reacted from on Friday.

52,094: Hourly level above.

52,392: Hourly level above.

52,748: Previous support before the breakdown.

53,281: Larger level above.

50,492: Larger level underneath if selling continues.

So in conclusion, I’m still bearish here. Now it’s really a matter of assessing at each level: where do I want to get in and out, which bounces are worth riding, and if selling continues, is there an opportunity to stay in a put a little longer?