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In This Edition
Wooohooo y’all. I got an advertising request from HubSpot! Does this mean I’m big time now?? 🤣 Here is what they want to share with you:
No theory. No slides. Just pipeline.
Most founders know their product. Few know how to get it in front of the right people. In this hands-on session, Clay + HubSpot for Startups walk you through ICP definition, prospect list enrichment, and AI-personalized outreach. You launch your first sequence before the session ends. June 18. 11am ET / 4pm GMT.
HUBS
Since HubSpot wanted to make an appearance, I figured we might as well look at their chart. 🫣😅 I used to trade HUBS, and after peaking again around $900, it took a beeline down. Now comes the question I always ask: is it done going down? I did notice a 30% gain in 2 days (5/29 to 6/1).
HUBS Daily and Weekly Chart
While that quickly sold off, could that have been the pop of buyers I look for as an early sign of buyer interest? A break below $175 would kill that thesis (for now).
But if that little pop of buyers meant anything, we could get a momentum trade from ~195 to ~245, and potentially further to ~300+. Below are the levels I marked. If it makes it up to 300, that’s a 50% increase. HUBS is not a stage 2 mover yet, but it may have a short-term momentum setup.
HUBS Daily Chart
Community Wins
This past week was a really great week for the TTR community. On Mondays, I host a Morning Market Review where we get ready for the upcoming week. I share the stocks that are on my shortlist and what levels I’m watching, and others share their picks and we review the charts and levels together. This particular week we stayed on an extra hour while the market was live, just talking through the volatility and building game plans together. This resulted in some really great downside trades. One of those trades was AAPL, which ended up being one of my favorite examples from the week.
Trading Puts in a Rising Market
So, let’s talk about the AAPL trade! I don’t trade much to the downside in a rising market, and I typically skip the first few pullbacks along the daily uptrend. When I do participate in the downside, it’s when we have been rising for a while and names across the board have this topping look on their daily charts. AAPL was so textbook:
AAPL Hourly and Daily Charts
This one went on my shortlist for a downside trade based on a few things:
I noticed an area above that continued to reject. This is the “shelf” I refer to for both upside and downside trades. It’s an area where I can draw a hard line and use it to manage my risk. For example, if I get an hourly close beyond it, I’m out (with some discretion depending on context). That shelf is also the area I am anticipating price to move away from.
In my experience, when we can no longer break above a level, we often need to break down first
The market was collectively selling. This provides the atmosphere and momentum for a trade to potentially go further, faster.
There was prior selling on Monday, June 1. This is a similar concept to my “pop of buyers” criteria. Instead, I saw a “show of sellers”.
For downside trades in an uptrending market, I typically use profit targets as my exit criteria.
SPX Review and Outlook
Last week, SPX made several attempts to bounce, but each push higher was rejected. The key lower area for me became 7,265, which price tested multiple times before finally starting to stabilize on Thursday and pushing back toward the top of the box.
SPX Hourly Chart
I had flagged this area inside the community earlier that morning as a potential stabilization zone, because price was starting to slow inside the range instead of immediately continuing lower.
On Friday, price tried to push higher again, reaching the 7,455 area, but momentum slowed and SPX moved mostly sideways for the rest of the day.
Looking Ahead
With SPX sitting near the top of last week’s bounce, here are the potential scenarios:
Hold 7,400 and Press Higher
price holds near the top of last week’s range
7,400 starts acting as support
even with a shallow pullback, buyers continue to defend the hourly moving averages
7,455 becomes the first level to clear
a break above 7,455 opens the door for price to work back toward 7,500, then potentially back to prior ATHs
Sideways Between 7,342 and 7,455
price stays inside the recent noise zone
7,455 continues to act as short-term resistance
7,342 becomes the lower area to watch if price drifts back down
this would keep the rebound intact, but with slower momentum and more chop
Lose 7,400
price loses the top of the prior range
7,342 becomes the next area to watch
buyers could try to stabilize there before a full retest of the box
if 7,342 breaks, 7,265 comes back into play
holding 7,265 would keep the stabilization attempt alive
losing 7,265 opens the door for a deeper pullback toward the 7,150 area
On Thursday morning, I still had a few put contracts on, but when price started stabilizing near 7,265, I switched gears quickly. That sign of stabilization didn’t mean I needed to jump into calls right away, but I did close my puts and start a few upside positions. A lot of people in my community decided to sit out, which was completely valid too.
The point is, it’s so important to pay attention to what price is doing at each level. You can come in with an idea, but when price gives you new information, you have to be willing to adjust with it.
So let’s go into this week with that same objectivity, mapping the levels, watching the reactions, and adjusting as the chart gives us more information.
