Next month I’ll be joining a few conversations across different platforms to talk about my 2025 experience in the United States Trading Championship. I’ll be sharing more about my strategy, the worst drawdown and tilt period of my career, and what recovery has looked like since then.

One of the events I am presenting at is Alex Marenco’s virtual meet up on April 15th at 10p EST…Yes he’s on Cali time and it will be way past my bedtime, but I promise I won’t disappoint. 😅 😴 Plus, there will be a recording!

Alex is a former Portfolio Manager at William O'Neil Capital Management and a current consultant to portfolio managers. His webinars cover the market from A to Z, including general market health, internals, leading sectors and industries, top CANSLIM stocks, top year-to-date names in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, leading IPOs, world markets, and stocks currently in buying range.

Meetup: Alex Marenco Stock Market Investors Meetup
Date: April 15, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET
Fee: $20, includes the recording

Click here to register.

SPX Review and Outlook

A Few Details to Review

Let’s start with a review of price action earlier this week.

On Monday, price failed to hold the 6,635 area, which lines up near prior support from March 13 and March 18. On Wednesday, we managed to gap up, but price rejected that prior support zone.

Across Tuesday and Wednesday, even though price was moving both ways, it wasn’t reclaiming 6,635 with strength. So while Wednesday reflected indecision, that rejection from prior support was an early clue that a bounce may lack follow through.

When we opened Thursday with a gap down, followed by that brief attempt higher that quickly sold off, that was the confirmation. At that point, the probability shifted more clearly to the downside, and price followed through into Friday.

Zooming Out

After topping near 7,000 and spending time in a range, we’ve now started to lose key levels below. The 6,550 area, which previously aligned with multiple pullbacks, did not hold. That opens the door to the next major level around 6,120.

Looking Ahead This Week

We closed Friday near 6,355, which lines up with prior support from August and September, as well as the breakout area following the July dip. So we are sitting at a level where buyers have responded before.

At the same time, with the recent selling pressure, these areas can draw more supply on any bounce. For me, I’m using pops as opportunities to reduce my stock exposure.

From here, I’m watching a few paths:

• Bounce toward ~6,550
  A move into this area would bring price back into prior support-turned-resistance. This could be a short-term bounce before rolling over.

• Extended bounce toward ~6,635 (200 SMA)
  If we get a stronger push, price could reach the underside of the 200 SMA. I would still treat this as a retrace into resistance.

• Continued pressure lower
  If bounces remain weak and sellers stay in control, the move can continue lower from here, with 6,120 still in focus on the weekly. We could see another cluster of dojis or sideways movement like last week.

Thoughts on Bounces During a Decline

If we do get a bounce, I’m not automatically thinking we’re going up from here. That first pop is usually just buyers stepping in. It’s the same concept I use in my options strategy. I want to see buyers show up, then a retest, and I use that retest level as a place to manage risk from.

So when I’m looking at whether we may be done declining, I’m looking for some form of retest, higher low, or undercut, followed by continuation.

This is the pattern of bottoms:

Closing Up Shop

Thank you so much to everyone who joined my GoKollab group. I really enjoyed creating it and giving it a shot, but I realized it was mostly becoming a place for me to list events, and I know that for it to become something more collaborative and engaging would take more effort from me. Since continuing to fine tune my own skill set in trading has always been my top priority, I decided to close it up.

I’ll continue sharing my journey, along with the things I’m learning and what’s been pivotal for me, through my newsletter and scheduled events. I’ll be adding a calendar of events on my newsletter homepage soon…I’m still sorting that part out 😅.

I’m so grateful to each and every one of you who took the time to sign up and show your support there. I look forward to staying connected through this newsletter, so feel free to hit reply, I do respond! and I look forward to seeing you at one of my virtual events.

I’ll be live tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. EST for my Morning Market Review. Join this session here via Zoom!

Til next time! ✨