Learning to trade well is one of the most fascinating things I've ever pursued. I've always viewed trading as a vehicle for personal development, and it's never let me down in that department!

Earlier this year, I reached a return of over 230% in my trading account. Since then, I've given back a portion of those gains and have been swinging between 129% and 200% over the last few months. I’m currently at 167% as of Friday’s close.

At first, I started to worry that this was last year all over again. Last year, I came out strong, made substantial progress, and started to give back profits. I then found myself in tilt and spent the rest of the year struggling to move forward.

So when I started seeing my returns decline, I thought, Fccckkk, is this last year all over again? Another year of work, and here I am again?

I started questioning whether I'd really made any progress...Am I falling back into old patterns? Is there something I still haven't figured out?

But as I was reviewing my work this month, I realized there was something I'd been overlooking: I have made leaps and strides in my development. I've already produced the same profits I made last year, and now I'm working to break through my previous ceiling, which requires a new level of proficiency.

Over the past several months, I've been folding new things into my trading. I'm managing larger positions, developing how I manage trades once I'm in them, working on additions, and refining how I reassess trades as new information comes in.

And there have been several instances where I felt like I had no idea what I was doing. How can I learn more and get dumber? 🤣

But I now know my struggle isn't because I've forgotten how to trade correctly or that I’ve fallen into tilt. I'm running into challenges because I'm trying to coordinate more decisions than I was before.

It’s like cooking. Think about a dish you've been making for years. You know the ingredients and how to cook it. You can pretty much execute this dish with your eyes closed…well now imagine preparing this same dish while also trying to cook two unfamiliar dishes, each with its own ingredients, temperatures, and timing. Suddenly, you overcook the dish you've made a hundred times! You didn't forget how to cook it, but now you're trying to coordinate several things at once, and you haven't yet developed the ability to do all of them well together.

This is a lot like what I've been experiencing in my trading.

For example, here's an assessment of my trading skills as of today:

Looking at my development this way helped me understand something I wasn't seeing when I was focused on my returns.

I know how to identify my setups, assess price structure, and establish where I'm wrong on a trade. But knowing where my stop belongs and consistently executing that stop under live market conditions are two different skills.

And when I start introducing additions, larger positions, and more active trade management, these decisions can affect how well I execute the things I already know how to do. To be crystal clear, this does not excuse my mistakes. I still need to take responsibility for them and work on correcting them…but no, I'm not getting dumber, and I'm not starting over. 😅 I'm simply working on a different set of challenges and understanding this has helped me see what needs work.

S&P and Nasdaq both fell back into their ranges this week and are now sitting near the bottom of them. Both are also below the daily 50 SMA and the shorter-term moving averages. I do view these structures as more bearish: we’ve been ranging for a while, we’re on the right side of these ranges, and price is now trading underneath the moving averages. I think this increases the probability that these ranges eventually resolve lower compared with when the structures were first developing, but it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to break down here. We could bounce from the bottom of the range, rotate back up, or stay range-bound longer.

Now, I can recognize that the structure has become more bearish without needing to predict that the breakdown happens this week. So coming into the week, the first thing is still assessing how price reacts around the bottom of these ranges. If we bounce, then we assess what happens as price gets back into the moving averages and the rest of the range.

SPX Levels

7,815: Upper end of the larger range.

7,757: Intra-range resistance.

7,629: Area price is testing now/bottom of range.

7,582: Next level below and still within the larger range structure.

7,506: Next level underneath if price continues lower.

7,314: Larger level below that.

Nasdaq Levels

27,300: Upper part of the larger range.

26,730: Intra-range resistance.

25,783: Lower part of the current range.

25,019: Next level below if selling continues.

24,443: Lower pivot underneath that.

The Dow has already been declining below its daily 50 SMA, then rallied back through the moving averages and into the 52,748 area before pulling back. Price is now between 51,618 and 52,748, where a lot of the recent price action has taken place.

Dow Levels

52,748: Previous support before the breakdown and where price stalled last week.

51,618: Lower level within the current area.

50,492: Larger level underneath if price continues lower.

53,281: Next larger level above.

So let’s see what this week brings. I think if we press up, it’ll be a bounce versus a reversal. But I’m just some random girl on the internet (an OVTLYR reference), so what do I know. 😆