You Can Trade, But You Can't Hide

There’s the trading people see…And then there’s the part you walk through alone. The part where it’s just you, the market, and whatever’s going on inside you.

It tests more than your system or your setup. It tests your ability to stay grounded, to face your emotions, and to take full responsibility for how you act and react.

Because in trading, you can’t hide.

It’s not like a business where cracks may take years to show up, or a relationship where dysfunction can stretch on for decades while the relationship stays intact. This is one of the few arenas where each action is judged by the numbers, where every decision is reflected back to you almost instantly. And even if no one else knows how much you're making or losing, you know. And it’s staring you in the face every single day.

Now, I’m not talking about those who gamble…there is a line where trading turns into gambling, especially if you’re blowing up account after account without accountability, without adjusting, and without taking it seriously. That’s a lotto mindset, and it needs to be addressed ASAP.

But when you're pursuing this as a real path, when you're doing the work, building skill, and refining your process, and you still go through a significant drawdown, give back a big chunk of profit, or hit a long stretch of stagnancy… that doesn’t mean you’re flawed or failing. It is not a reflection of your self worth or your value.

It’s just the part where it gets lonely, painful, and unsteady.

But stay.

Yes, it takes a toll. Especially when your self-worth gets tangled up in the numbers. But that’s exactly why you need to remember: this isn’t a reflection of your value. It’s just part of what this path demands.

So if you’ve chosen this for real, just know:

Even when it feels like it’s testing every part of you, it’s also shaping you. And you’re not alone in it.

This path has highs and heartbreaks, and neither one defines you. The fact that you’re still in it means more than you think.

The ones who grow through it, slowly, steadily, imperfectly, are the ones who make it.

So hear me when I say: KEEP GOING.

SPX Forecast

🎥 This week, I dropped a new video on SPX in TradingView. Check it out here. Below are the highlights for a quick read.

Weekly moving averages are reordering and turning up
The weekly chart shows that the 10EMA and 20EMA have now crossed the 50SMA and are turning up. That reordering adds strength to the broader trend. This past week, the index reclaimed 6,000, which is a key psychological level. And we also saw price bounce off the uptrend line drawn from the April low, showing buyers are still defending key areas of support.

Daily pullback found support
The daily chart gave us a pullback the Friday before last, but it held right at a confluence of support (the 20EMA and 200SMA), along with a horizontal level drawn from the weekly timeframe.

Digestion periods can shake you out if you’re too zoomed in
The last few weeks have been a reminder that chop can test your patience and your plan. We didn’t break trend, we just pulled back to support. But if you’re too zoomed in, it can feel like everything is shifting. That’s when stops get hit early, trades get closed prematurely, and new positions get put on for the wrong reasons. In reality, this was just a normal digestion after a strong move. And when in doubt, zooming out brings the clarity back.

Trendlines and levels are guides, not absolutes
There were a few moments in my chart review this week where I caught myself trying to make lines matter more than they do. But these tools (trendlines, moving averages, support and resistance) only matter in the context of what price is doing around them. Structure tells the real story. One line getting hit or crossed doesn’t mean the whole thesis breaks down. What matters is whether buyers step in, whether trend resumes, and whether your trade idea still fits your system.

So what now? Here’s what I’ll be watching this week:

• We’re holding above all major MAs.

• If we push through the February all-time high, that can shift sentiment, especially for retail traders who may see that as a signal that “we’re in the clear.”

• If we stall below the ATH, that wouldn’t be a problem by itself, but I’d watch how price behaves...ie are we pulling back constructively or losing key levels?

• I’m not leaning bearish and won't be unless we start closing below 5,800 (200SMA) and definitely if we can't hold the rising 50SMA. (My second scenario after my bullish one is sideways, so bearish for me is out for now.)

When the market starts moving, the best thing you can do is trust your prep, lean into your plan, and zoom out when things get noisy. The bigger picture hasn’t changed.

June’s Pick: RDDT

🎥 I also did a shorter recording charting up RDDT and talking through what I see. Check the video out here, and below are a few highlights.

New right side of the bigger structure may be forming
So far, the structure is continuing to tighten and build. On the weekly chart, price is breaking out of a long base, reclaiming the 10EMA and 50SMA and closing just beneath the 20EMA. Price also broke above the prior weeks downtrend line and is now climbing…maybe the early stages of what could become a more sustained uptrend.

Daily trending up
Last week RDDT started climbing along the 10EMA, and the 20EMA started turning up. Friday’s strong close sits right below the 200SMA and the top of a chop range around 121. If buyers can push through that zone and close above 125–126, that opens up room toward 130 (again), which has potential to make a higher high. If price can clear that 130 zone and build a higher base, then we may be looking at an even bigger upside range, potentially 155–166, which is where price stayed in a range before breaking down.

Key levels to watch

• Support: 108–110. This zone held on the most recent pullback and aligns with prior structure.

• Short-term target: 125–126. If price breaks and holds above this level, it suggests momentum is building.

• Overhead resistance: 130. Clearing and holding above this level is what would turn this into something with more swing potential.

• Upside potential: 155–166, if price can build a base above 130.

While the structure is building constructively, and a decline from here isn't my first pick, it is possible that we just continue to chop. But for now I am bullish on RDDT for the next few weeks.

Stay grounded, trade your plan, see you next week! ✨