Will the Market Bounce Back Next Week?

Walking through scenarios + my actual opinion.

Author

Emanuela Elias
November 09, 2025

SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats
High: 6,882.32
Low: 6,631.44
Close: 6,728.81
Change: -1.63 %
ATH: 6,920.34 (Oct 29)

After hitting a new all-time high the previous week, SPX spent the last week and a half digesting that move, and the pullback went deeper than what I had outlined in last week’s scenarios. I did see the bearish divergence forming on the weekly SRSI, but in trying to avoid calling reversals, I leaned a little too bullish. Now that prices have settled, we can look at what actually unfolded and what may come next.

On the weekly chart, price pulled all the way back toward the 10 EMA before buyers stepped in, and we closed right around the same zone that had rejected us earlier in October. The broader weekly trend is intact and supported by the moving averages.

SPX Weekly Chart

On the daily chart, the pullback found support at 6632, the same area price danced around in mid September and mid October. We closed back inside the yellow support zone, which is common behavior when price revisits a familiar pocket of noise before forming a new base.

This Week’s Scenarios to Consider

1. A sideways reset before drifting higher
There is a possibility that SPX simply digests last week’s move by moving sideways. Friday’s reversal brought us back into the yellow zone, and the index may stay here while it catches its breath. If we hold above 6,700, even with some chop, that type of consolidation often leads to a gradual drift upward. This would match the character of the trend and keep the broader structure intact.

2. A cleaner rebound and continuation
If buyers continue to step in, SPX will reclaim the moving averages overhead. In that case, the zone around 6,728 to 6,760 becomes a natural retest area before continuation. Some traders will read that move as an attempt at a lower-high, but for those leaning bullish it becomes a place to add or reposition. A steady rotation through that pocket would open the path back toward the highs.

3. A retest of support with a chance for an emotional shakeout
If SPX cannot move back above the moving averages or hold inside the yellow zone, we could roll over. The next area ties back to the 50 SMA and the 6,632 support we saw around October 10. If fear shows up, we may briefly test closer to 6,555, or even drift into the weekly 20 EMA. I do not consider this my primary expectation, but it remains a scenario to keep in mind.

Now…What Do I Really Think?

You mean I can’t just present you with up, down, and sideways scenarios? 😂

I’ve been getting some feedback to share what I think will most likely happen instead of only laying out scenarios, and I love it. I walk through multiple scenarios because it keeps me objective and helps me think through the different paths the market could take. If I’m leaning one way and the index doesn’t follow through, I’m not caught off guard because I have already considered the alternatives. And because this is a public newsletter, my intention is to give context that helps you form your own opinion rather than influence your bias.

But I appreciate the nudge to clarify my personal stance, because it helps me move toward the level of mastery and professional technical analysis I am working to grow into.

So my opinion on how we will actually fare this week: bullish.

The pullback we just had came in around 4% which makes it the deepest pullback we have seen since the February decline, yet it still fits the character of a healthy digestion after such a sharp move to new highs. Price held at the weekly 10 EMA and closed back inside the familiar support zone on the daily chart, and those are the kinds of behaviors that tend to support continuation.

My focus will be to observe how the index behaves around my yellow zone. I would like to see follow-through to the upside, which could be buyers stepping in, a retest around my yellow zone, and then continuation up. I expect that if we do move higher, we may see some hesitations around recent highs.

From an oscillator standpoint, the weekly SRSI is sitting mid-range, which is common during digestion. The daily SRSI has already reset below twenty, which supports the idea that momentum can rebuild once price settles.

A quick note on how I use oscillators like the SRSI:

  • Where an oscillator sits matters less than when it actually turns. The signal is in the rotation, not the position.

  • A reading below 20 tells you momentum has cooled and the “reset” is in place, which simply creates a better condition for buyers to regain control once price structure supports it.

  • A reading above 80 tells you momentum is extended and due for some form of digestion. Sometimes that digestion looks like a pullback, but in strong uptrends it can just be sideways price action instead.

  • Always read oscillators in context. In pullbacks, focus on the turn up together with price holding a higher low or reclaiming key levels and moving averages. In strong trends, overbought can persist while price continues to grind higher, and a turn down alone does not imply a reversal.

And why I am not leaning bearish overall and haven’t been: Nothing on the charts resemble the long sideways stretch (stage 3 topping) we experienced last year between November and February before the sharp decline, and we are not in a bear market. The natural state of the market is an upward drift, unless something meaningfully breaks the structure, and so far we are not seeing signs of that.

Ok y’all so there you have it. Continue to take what serves you and throw out the rest. Thanks as always for reading and your engagement. ‘Til next time!