Wait and See on SPX

Each year, I re-read books that have really had an impact on me. I picked up Turning Pro by Steven Pressfield again, and ooo how timely it was. If you haven’t read his book yet, I highly recommend it. He talks about the Resistance we all face, and how we avoid our callings with addictions. And not just addictions like booze and drugs, but distractions like scrolling on social media apps or binging regularly on shows, or displacement activities like pursuing a backup career, getting lost in writing research but never publishing, and in my case: being on an endless quest to uncover what subconscious things keep me from performing well consistently.

I have taken the woo woo (mindset work) too far.

(Yes babe, you are reading that right, you were right. 😂 )

My partner always nudges me gently, but gives me space, knowing I will arrive when I arrive. She had been noticing my obsessive reading and writing and self analyzing this past month. And YES!, I (you, we) need some of the woo woo, but after picking up Turning Pro again, it clicked: 

I have found myself addicted to the research of myself and my mindset, neglecting the simple consistent work required to trade well. I prioritized this continuous deep dive of my inner workings and significantly reduced the practical work like charting, backtesting, planning, documenting trades, etc. I rationalized that the woo woo stuff was what I needed most, but in reality, I was just self soothing after my first major loss earlier in August. In Steven Pressfield’s terms: I was, avoiding my calling through the displacement activity (or a shadow pursuit) of studying my mindset so much so that I neglected the primary work required of a chartist and technical analyst.

There was a time a few years ago where I was completely unaware of my compulsions and underlying triggers and traumas, and I worked on those over time. And while I am so much better at managing myself, some of these things will never go away. So it is my job to put guard rails in place of how to handle myself in each scenario, and clearly define that in my trading plan. I can continue to do the work that heals me, but it needs to remain secondary. What I’ve been doing is keeping myself from my goals through a distracting practice of woowery (yes, made that up and I like it), and that’s not ok.

My main takeaway: We are who we are. We can evolve, but somethings we will never change and somethings never go away. Create boundaries in your trading plan to guide yourself when your not so best self (or the emotions that are not conducive to trading) shows up.

Turning Pro as a Trader

Continuing with the Turning Pro theme, I wanted to create a list sharing some ideas of what an amateur trader may do/look like compared to a pro. We are all somewhere on the spectrum of Amateur and Pro, and this high level list is designed to get you thinking. Some behaviors will vary of course!

Hope some of this resonated or served as a mirror. I wish you all the best in your trading journey and that you recognize when you are avoiding the things that have brought you success. Everything requires balance, so notice where you are slacking and bring yourself back into equilibrium.

SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats
High: 6,532.65
Low: 6,350.58
Close: 6,481.51

ATH: 6,532.65 (September 5)

I hang up my trader title this week as I have been whooped by poor emotional control and poor decision making in this choppy environment. I can't help to think we are topping, but I do also see we are still in a strong bull market. It has just has been harder to swing trade the daily chart time frame. I did record a video today, but also wrote out my scenarios. See below.

📹 Watch full video here: TradingView SPX Analysis 

Scenarios I’m Watching

Upside Continuation:
Buyers hold above the shaded zone (6,440–6,481) and press higher along the uptrend. A clean push above 6,532 would open the door to new highs, with the trend remaining intact as long as higher lows continue.

Sideways Chop:
Price keeps oscillating above and below the 6,440–6,481 range. This would extend consolidation and could frustrate swing traders, but it would also allow moving averages to tighten then smooth out and set the stage for another leg higher.

Deeper Pullback:
If the shaded zone and uptrend line break, the next levels to watch are the 20 EMA (~6,430) and the 50 SMA (~6,355). A dip into this area could still be a normal pullback within an uptrend, especially if buyers step in quickly as they’ve done in recent weeks.

Bearish Roll-Over:
If neither the 20 EMA nor the 50 SMA hold, a breakdown toward ~6,200 is possible. While not a technical correction percentage-wise, it would feel significant for anyone who entered near recent highs.

The uptrend is still intact, but price remains stuck in a choppy zone that has been difficult to trade cleanly. Each recent pullback has been bought, and higher highs and higher lows are still in place, so the broader structure favors the bulls. At the same time, the repeated back-and-forth around the shaded range signals indecision, so the focus is on how SPX behaves between 6,440 and 6,481.

Mood: Cautiously Bullish

I can’t stress enough, set yourself a budget for the week, month, or day (depending on your style of trading) and stick to it. Don’t even let yourself get close to blowing it either, the budget is just your max risk if all hell breaks loose, but your trade size and risk management should keep you from blowing it all. I am still recovering from my drawdown, emotionally more than anything, and when I rebuild my confidence, I will share what worked for me. Until then, just send some positive vibes and support me by staying disciplined and winning for yourself. It’s great to hear others doing well in a space that only a handful can successfully conquer. ‘Til next time!