SPX Outlook

This week I’ve got a video for you. Check it out, or just check out my cliff notes here:

Initial range for this week:

Support: 6830

Resistance: 6900

We’re still in chop, which for me means I’m trading in bites at a time, including intraday trades.

Upside idea: Friday already started a move up from 6830, so I wouldn’t buy or add to the upside up here yet. I’d consider buying if we get a retest around 6843, or a tag of the uptrend line, and we see signs of buyer strength (green candles, long wicks below). In this range, I’m only taking an upside entry in anticipation of a move back toward 6900, and once we’re there, I’d reassess.

Downside idea: If Friday’s pivot up doesn’t hold, I’m watching 6830 closely. If we break 6830, that opens the door to the lower range. I’d then be looking for an entry to the downside to ride into the lower range toward 6765. But! If we only test 6830 and buyers defend it, then I’m back to looking for a call to ride back up the range.

I’m keeping expectations tight this week because I’m still not seeing any follow through from either side. We have been ping-ponging inside a range, making sustained moves in either direction less probable.

SPX-Only Trading Update

For anyone newly joining, a few weeks ago I had dedicated myself to trading only SPX, so I could tighten my focus and reduce any noise. I’ve got plans to hit 250K this year, so I am building the foundation that will get me there.

These are the results from last week:

Trading one asset at a time has been interesting. What’s working well is that it forces precision, and it forces me to be on standby for moves, because if I’m not there, I don’t get a bite. And once SPX goes into a tight range, there are just fewer clean trades. So it’s a different than being able to scout my greater watchlist and bounce around stocks that are setting up. This has definitely been a practice in restraint.

I also like that it feels like I’m managing one thing, so my prep time is shorter and my attention isn’t fragmented. What I don’t love is it’s pushed me into more self-control. No more wild wild west trading, because in the past, when I saw a collective move up or down, my habit was to jump into a bunch of positions since you never really know which one is going to move the best. Trading one asset means I get one move from one chart, and it’s teaching me patience, whether I like it or not 😅.

Here’s how the first three weeks have looked:

• Week 1: +2,500

• Week 2: -600

• Week 3: +1,200

So far, I like these stats. Even with some chasing in week 2, and an oversized position (that resulted in a loss) in week 3, this is protecting me from myself and keeping me positive. Looking forward to week 4, especially for a full week in the market!!

If the market stays range-bound, your edge is patience, timing, and restraint. Show up prepared, wait for price to come to your levels, take the clean trades, and let the rest go by. You don’t need to catch everything to trade well.

Preparation + Patience = Profits

Cheers,

Emanuela