The HIMS Rally

Market Outlook

The S&P remains in a short-term uptrend even with momentum slowing down last week. It finished flat, forming a weekly doji, a sign of indecision after a clean ride up from mid-April through early May. Price is still holding above key moving averages, but it hasn’t been able to clear the next major level just yet.

Check out these few points before we dig into the scenarios:

• Price closed Friday at 5,659, just under a the level around 5,669 (my dashed line), where the index has repeatedly stalled.

• While there were multiple attempts to break above this area, on Monday, Thursday, and Friday, each was met with a pause or rejection. That doesn't necessarily suggest strong selling or a lack of buyers. After a steady rally, this kind of price action can also reflect positioning or digestion as participants prepare for the next potential leg.

• The 200SMA remains just overhead, along with two intersecting weekly downtrend lines, creating a tight and congested region that will require commitment to break through cleanly.

• I am looking for a break above 5,789 to establish a new higher high in the grander structure.

Bullish Scenario:

• A move above Thursday’s high and this congested zone (around 5,669–5,700) could open the door to a push toward 5,789, the pivot high/retest from March.

• That level acted as a major rejection point during the last leg down and was also a key level of support in January before the February breakdown.

• If we clear 5,789, the next area to watch is 5,875, which aligns with a structural level that supported the prior multi-month base.

Neutral Scenario:

• With all of the congestion around current levels, moving averages, trendlines, and overlapping historical resistance, a continued sideways range between ~5,550 and 5,750 would not be surprising.

• This would allow the market to digest the April rally and potentially build energy for the next breakout or breakdown.

Bearish Scenario:

• If the price continues to stall here and breaks below the recent daily uptrend line, watch for a move to the 10EMA/20EMA zone.

• A deeper breakdown could send price toward the weekly uptrend line from April’s pivot low around 5525, and if that fails to hold, the next key target would be around 5,382, the previous gap up.

• A further decline down could be to 5,264, where the previous downtrend line intersects with a prior pivot zone.

• Failure to hold the EMAs and the weekly uptrend line would shift the tone more decisively bearish, especially if volume increases.

Key Levels to Watch:

• 5,669–5,700: Key short-term resistance zone

• 5,789: Pivot high from March and breaking it would establish a higher high in the zoomed out structure

• 5,550: Short-term support and EMA zone

• 5,457: A retest to the original weekly uptrend line

Stock Spotlight: HIMS

HIMS has had a strong run, breaking out from a multi-week base and pushing above all major moving averages. After clearing the prior weekly downtrend line, it’s now sitting just below a key zone marked by several past retests, areas where momentum previously failed. I’ve drawn these lines as awareness zones, not fixed levels for profit-taking or entries, but they do help visualize where digestion or reactions may occur.

This week’s focus is on whether HIMS can hold above support and continue building, or whether we’ll see a deeper pullback first. Below are the updated scenarios I’m watching:

Bullish Scenario

• If HIMS continues higher, we may see a shallow pullback first, possibly around 46.75, which lines up with one of my key levels and the uptrend line drawn from late April.

• A slightly deeper dip into the 10EMA would also be a healthy reset.

• From there, a move back through last week’s high and a continuation up along the uptrend line would confirm strength and keep this breakout intact.

• If momentum holds, I’m watching for a move toward 65, which sits just below the all-time high. This area could act as resistance, gearing up to establish a new ATH.

• If we get a new ATH, I’d could see the momentum gain to the upside from the excitement, then an immediate period of digestion, either sideways or a decline as buyers take profits.

Neutral Scenario

• A sideways range around the current zone would be healthy digestion after the recent run.

• This could look like price holding between the retest levels (roughly 52–56), bouncing in a tight range as momentum resets.

• In this case, I’d watch for signs of strength on dips and whether volume dries up during consolidation.

Bearish Scenario

• If HIMS breaks below 46.75, it could open the door for more downside, especially if sellers step in and follow through.

• That level is still above the EMAs, so the structure wouldn’t shift significantly unless price dips below the 10EMA and 20EMA.

• If that happens, I’d watch the 38 zone as the next key support, a previous base where price could stabilize or build a new setup. Below that, it could decline further around 33, where the first uptrend line and gap up was established (which also lines up with the 50SMA).

HIMS has been moving cleanly and with strength, but it's also a name that can swing hard in either direction. With price sitting above all major moving averages and the structure still intact, I’m watching how it behaves around key levels like 46.75 and its EMAs. My bias remains to the upside, though I’ve personally scaled out to just a few contracts.

Alright y’all. I am wrapping up to finish enjoying a fabulous Mother’s Day. Happy Mother’s Day to all my mamas out there. 🪻🌻🌷 ‘Til next week!