SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats

• High: 6,600.21

• Low: 6,483.08

• Close: 6,584.28

• New ATH: 6,600.21

SPX set another all-time high on Friday at 6,600.21 and closed at 6,584.28, up +1.59% for the week.

We can see where SPX briefly dipped below the June–August uptrend line the first week of September, but that didn’t invalidate the trend. Buyers stepped in quickly and pushed price back above, keeping the broader uptrend intact. We’ve seen this kind of undercut before, a quick move below a key level, followed by recovery. The index is currently allowing the uptrend to continue.

On the daily chart, Tuesday’s session tapped an area where the (1) sharp short-term uptrend line, (2) top of the shaded consolidation box, and (3) the rising 10 EMA converge, and then reversed to rise higher. That momentum carried through the rest of the week.

Scenarios I’m Watching

• Bullish Continuation:
  Price continues riding the steeper daily uptrend line, pushing beyond 6,600 and into new highs without much pause. This would reflect strong buyer momentum carrying forward from the early September reversal.

• Sideways Consolidation:
  SPX holds between ~6,555 and 6,600, chopping sideways to digest the recent run. This would let the moving averages catch up and create a stronger base for another leg higher.

• Pullback to the 10 EMA (~6,530):
  A mild pullback to retest the September 5 reversal zone around 6,530, near the rising 10 EMA. This would still fit within a healthy uptrend, giving time for support to firm up.

• Deeper Retest (~6,480):
  A larger move down toward 6,480, breaking the June-August uptrend line and aligning with the rising 20 EMA and top of the consolidation box (a key support/resistance area). This is the furthest downside I’d be watching in the near term, and it would likely take more than one week to play out unless selling accelerates.

The structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows firmly intact. The September run has been sharp, so some digestion is possible, but it doesn’t have to mirror the long sideways stretch we saw in August. Even a quick 1–3 day pullback could be enough. At the same time, the index may not pull back at all and could continue higher from here. Either way, momentum favors the bulls, and the focus is on staying responsive to how price develops in real time.

Mood: bullish, but open to short-term digestion.

PLTR Breakout Entry

Today I want to walk you through a few things I look at when I’m plotting a breakout entry, using my entry on PLTR as an example.

In general when I’m looking for a breakout entry, I want to see:

• A rising stock: The stock has to already be in an uptrend, well above its daily 150/200 SMA or 30/40-week SMAs.

• A base after a decline: After a sharp drop, a stock usually needs time to digest before it can move higher again. That’s what happened with PLTR in mid-August when it lost its daily 20 EMA and couldn’t reclaim it. Instead, it built a base with buyers defending the 153–148 zone.

• A clean breakout setup: Once the bottom of the base is clear and demand is holding, I shift to the hourly chart to fine-tune an entry.

On Monday, September 8, PLTR gave that signal. The daily chart still hadn’t reclaimed the EMAs, but the hourly showed a uniform pullback and then a strong push higher on volume. That’s the kind of confirmation I look for on breakouts.

• Entry: Taken as the breakout showed strength on the hourly and pulled back uniformly to the stacked moving averages.

• Stop: Placed at the bottom of the base (~153). A break below that could mean the digestion phase wasn’t finished yet.

This is exactly what I want to see in a breakout: a stock that’s already strong, a base that’s had time to form, buyers showing up at clear levels, and an entry that gives me a defined risk point. The hourly gave me that clarity even though the daily, at the moment of entry, was still going sideways without reclaiming the EMAs. That in itself isn’t a problem, but what matters is that support is holding and that you’re trading from the right side of the base. Enter too early and you’re still in digestion, so you want to wait and see buyers step in and defend those levels, increasing the probability of a tradeable breakout.

And it’s a wrap!! Til next time!