SPX Confirmed Weakness

And a peek into my EOM assessment.

Author

Emanuela Elias
August 03, 2025

SPX Review and Outlook

Last Week
High: 6,427.02
Low: 6,212.69
Close: 6,238.00

Earlier this week, I saw the tides turning and updated an idea I had published on TradingView.

Update on SPX Idea on TradingView

SPX set a new all-time high at market open Thursday, and then quickly gave way to selling. On Friday we gapped down and continued declining right back into that shaded range of previous consolidation between 6200 and 6300. This was the same area the index digested before its last breakout.

SPX Daily Chart

The pullback started pretty controlled with Thursday’s drop pausing at the 10 EMA and the uptrend line we’ve been tracking from late April. Then Friday’s gap lower broke both of those, confirming weakness. The question now is, what next?

Here are a few ideas I have:

  • It’s possible to see buyers step in early in the week, causing a retest to the 10 and 20 EMAs, the top of the shaded box, and the underside of the broken uptrend line (~6300). If this happens, it is the type of clean structure you’d look for to get in on a short: a bounce that tests previous support and then rolls over. (Also note that a bounce may pop above the 10/20 EMA, but if it stays below the newly established high of 6,427, this will still support weakness by creating a lower high.)

  • Whether we retest or not, we may keep moving lower to the 50 SMA (~6130). This level is significant because it not only lines up with the January/February pivot high from earlier this year, but it is also the level of the 10 EMA on the weekly. The index may find support here, which would be about a 4.5% pullback from the high…still healthy, and nothing unusual for the trend we’re in.

  • If the selling accelerates, I’ve marked 6000 as another possible spot for support. This would be about a 7% pullback, and while still not a correction, it may feel like one. This level is the same as the 20 EMA on the weekly.

Weekly SPX Snapshot

Coming off a strong run like the one we’ve had since April, a continued drop may feel sharp, but keep an eye on the levels I mentioned for potential areas of support. I’ll be watching how price interacts with each of these areas to get information for my next set of trades. Andddd if we do not decline, I will definitely be surprised…but all we can ever do is forecast the higher probability and let the charts do the talking.

EOM (End of Month) Assessment

Just as in any business, it is important to regularly assess your work. I review my trades weekly, and then do an end of month recap, as well as a quarterly review. This helps me stay on track with the outcomes I am trying to achieve. Today I want to share the questions I answer at the end of the month. Feel free to use these for yourself or tweak them to make them your own.

1. What was this month’s goal?
What was I aiming for? Income, consistency, discipline, recovery, confidence?
What Key Results did I commit to? Did I track them?

2. What went well?
Where did I follow my plan?
When did I scale out correctly, sell early with confidence, or let a runner ride?
What setups felt clean? When was I in flow, not forcing?

3. What didn’t go well?
Where did I break rules?
Did I force trades, flip bias, overtrade, or let emotions lead?
What patterns repeated that I already know I’m working on?

4. Why did that happen?
Was it emotional? Boredom, regret, chasing, proving?
Did I abandon my plan mid-trade?
Was I distracted, impatient, or trying to control the outcome?

5. What needs to change?
Where do I tighten the plan? Stops, entries, trade count, position size?
Is there something I know works that I skipped over?
What rule, habit, or reminder do I need front and center next month?

6. What is the reminder I need in front of me?
Choose one mantra or phrase that keeps me grounded.

7. Final note to self:
What do I want to adjust heading into next month?

I like to write as much as possible, especially to uncover underlying emotions, triggers, or external influences that may have interfered with my best work. I make sure to write on my wins too, really celebrating what I did right so I can remember those moments in tough times. And most importantly, after identifying where I went off track, I forgive myself so I’m not carrying that baggage forward. I then pull everything together into a short summary to help wrap up my thoughts and get clear on my upcoming monthly goal.

Here is my July summary to give you an idea:

P&L: $16K realized. Fell short of the $20K target, but stayed disciplined and avoided overtrading.

Wins: Waited for clean setups, didn’t force, traded from strength (AGX was my cleanest entry), stayed aligned with moving averages and base structures.

Errors: Exited too early, twice! missing significant continuation. Sold based on account balance, not chart. Let pressure of competition and desire to “lock in” override my own exit plan.

Root Cause: Fear of losing what I have already “won.” Emotional attachment to milestones like $200K and leaderboard status.

Pattern Recognition: Early exits were less about the trade and more about the account number. The desire to “prove” progress is hijacking my patience.

Focus for August: Detach from account milestones, and let the trade play out. Hide account balances when checking on positions. Don’t trade to win the competition, trade to build on my edge. The competition will take care of itself.

If you want to sustain profitability and grow as a trader, taking time to reflect like this each month can make a real difference. It helps you spot patterns, track progress, and reset your focus. The point is just to pause, take inventory, and go into the next month with more clarity and intention than the one before.

I’m skipping picking a stock of the month, and am going back to using this last section a little more freely, sometimes for mindset, sometimes for business, sometimes something more technical. Ooo! and it’s been a while since we’ve done a trade breakdown. I would like to maintain this last segment as a space where I share as I learn and grow too.

Anyways, hope you’re enjoying these. As always, I’d love to hear from you!

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