I'm Over Overtrading 😩

I already knew I was getting a little out of control, deviating from my plan…but over the last few weeks, I hit a different level of low. I had a big run recently and got way too excited. Didn't manage it well. Overtraded. Gave some profits back. It felt like the Wild Wild West. No rhythm, no patience, just entering and exiting trades like a day trader. Tuesday I finally hit my mercy point and reached out to a few fellow traders to cry…just a little. 😅

No one humbles you faster than your trading circle:

and my favorite:

😂💕 I am grateful to have been able to pump the brakes before I did any real damage. The last few days have been a reset. Slowing down. Getting rooted back into my plan. Letting the setups come to me instead of trying to force them. Back to trading, not gambling (that line is fine).

We had some great moves this week, and I am thankful. Thankful for honest and supportive friends and family, a clear mind and clear setups. I’m focused on keeping that energy — better controlling my emotions, staying patient, and stacking one good decision at a time.

Still here. Still steady. Pressing a lot fewer buttons.😅 

So with my emotions back in check, let’s refocus on the broader market structure heading into this week.

S&P 500 Outlook

The S&P broke above its weekly downtrend line last week (the dotted downtrend line) and is now approaching a key resistance area. While the short-term structure is rising, major moving averages remain overhead and important tests are still ahead. Bullish continuation remains the primary scenario, with neutral consolidation as the secondary possibility. A bearish breakdown would require a clear failure of support levels.

Here’s a look at the week ahead:

Bullish

• If the S&P holds above 5,484, there’s room for a move toward 5,650, where the declining 50SMA and previous resistance align. Next stop, the 200SMA or 5790 area.

• Some minor pauses or consolidations could occur at moving averages along the way, but overall momentum remains constructive if buyers stay active.

Bearish

If the S&P fails to hold above 5,484 and breaks back below the downtrend line, targets could be:

• First: 10EMA or 20EMA (currently around 5,400–5,3800)

• Then: The rising daily uptrend line drawn from the April low.

• Finally: A retest toward the 5,264 key level if broader selling pressure returns.

A deeper breakdown remains a lower probability unless clear selling momentum develops.

Neutral

• If buyers slow down but sellers don’t fully take control, the S&P could chop between 5,484 and 5,650.

• This would create a broad consolidation range — still tradable, but without strong directional follow-through, patience and selectivity would be key here.

May Stock Spotlight: HIMS

This week we are already welcoming in May! And this month I’m highlighting HIMS.

While the broader market has been rallying, HIMS has stayed relatively muted, consolidating beneath a major downtrend line. Structurally, it’s holding short-term support, but a breakout above the 20EMA and downtrend line is needed to shift momentum higher. If buyers step in, there’s room for a move toward 30–36. If not, a breakdown below the 24–25 support zone could trigger a continued decline or just more consolidation.

📹 See how I charted this via my video on TradingView.

Bullish 

• A break and hold above the 20EMA would shift momentum back to the upside.

• Initial resistance would be around 30, where previous price congestion sits.

• If buyers can push through, next target would be around 35–36, near the declining 50SMA.

• There is a short-term intraday trendline forming on the hourly chart that could act as a support guide if the stock starts climbing.

Bearish 

• A rejection from the downtrend line or failure to hold above the 20EMA could lead to a move lower.

• Breaking below the 24–25 support area would be a key bearish trigger.

• If that level fails, the next major downside target would be near 19.5.

Neutral 

• Continued sideways chop around the moving averages.

No strong directional move until price breaks out or breaks down from this range. Earnings are scheduled for May 5th, so we may get some momentum leading up to or after the report. For now, it’s about being patient and letting the setup develop.

Alright y’all, wrapping this up for today. Just wanted to leave a few reminders…really for myself 😂 but I know we’ve all been there. It’s easy to get pulled into the rush of trading, especially when the market heats up. But steady focus wins long-term.

This month, I'm focused on increasing my patience and precision. I don’t want to keep spending energy fixing messes. I want to shift that energy into fine-tuning my craft. And I know that requires shifting my behavior from amateur to pro.

Thanks for being part of my journey. Let’s stay steady heading into May. 💪🏽 🎉