How Might SPX Unfold This Week?

Hello everyone! Sending peace and love to anyone remembering someone this Memorial Day. Wishing you a weekend of warmth, reflection, and time with the people you care about as we honor those we’ve lost. ❤️

As for the market, it’s pulled back a bit after a strong run, and the S&P is now sitting at a decision zone.

SPX Outlook

1. Trendlines
I’ve got a lot of trendlines on here this week, but I just want to walk through how different levels show up when drawn on different timeframes.

In the charts below, the white lines were drawn on the daily chart, and the blue lines were drawn from the weekly. The most recent uptrend line I drew on the daily lines up with a new trendline on the weekly but on the weekly chart, it’s not the lowest line.

Because this trendline is new, I’m not holding it as too significant yet. What does make this area notable is the daily 200SMA and 20EMA that are providing support right around where the index closed.

Each timeframe tells its own story. Weekly trendlines may not match the same swing points we’d pick manually on the daily and that’s okay. The point is to use each timeframe for what it’s designed to show.

For me, the weekly guides the broader trend. The daily is where I manage the trade. When both align, that’s when I have the most conviction.

Right now, my trading chart (daily) is in a short-term downtrend. I’d want to see a break of the downtrend, or a reclaim of the 10EMA to feel more confident that this was just a pullback.

2. 5767 is trying to act as short-term support
Both the daily and weekly candles tapped 5767 and pulled back up, giving this level near-term significance. It lines up with:
• The March retest area, before that final drop into the April lows
• The January pivot low
• The November 5 candle before the index gapped up

Buyers have stepped in here so far. If this level holds and we start to move higher, the first test will be 5860, which has acted as both support and resistance at different times over the past six months.

3. Should we see a bounce, these are the next levels I’m watching
If price starts to climb, I’m watching a few key levels of overhead resistance that could slow momentum or invite consolidation, depending on how the index approaches them:

• 5860, which has flipped between support and resistance multiple times
• The new weekly downtrend line, drawn from the April high
• The psychological 6000 zone, which has already acted as a stall point
• And the February pivot high (and ATH) at 6145, which could either get rejected on the first test or become a retest zone on a confirmed breakout

4. Pullback is still developing, with key support just below
The index pulled back this past week, giving back the prior week’s gains. In the broader structure, we’re still holding a higher low. This keeps the trend technically intact, though momentum has cooled.

If 5767 doesn’t hold, the next structural band sits just below. I’ll be watching the 5730–5700 zone, where several elements come together:
• The 10EMA, 20EMA, and 50SMA on the weekly chart
• A cluster of prior reactions from March and early April
• The upper edge of the pre-gap-up base from early May

This range sits right between the cluster of weekly moving averages and could act as a shelf if tested. If it doesn’t hold, the next support level I’ll be watching is around 5672, though for now that remains a lower probability scenario for me.

I’m still leaning bullish overall, but I do want to see how this pullback plays out first. So far, the structure is holding, and we’re still above the prior breakout and in line with a higher low on the daily chart. For now, I’m not anticipating much deeper than 5700 unless we see a sharp shift in sentiment or broader conditions.

Stock Spotlight: HIMS

After about a week of consolidation, HIMS gapped down on Thursday. Now we’re waiting to see whether the 20EMA will hold the price and offer support, or if HIMS will break down further. It is holding structure, but hasn’t made its next move clear just yet.

1. Pullback found support at the gap-up zone
After breaking out in early May and climbing steadily, HIMS has now pulled back into the 53-55 area, which overlaps with several key features:
• The bottom of the mid May gap-up candle
• A horizontal support line that has been retested several times
• The 10EMA (orange) which is now catching price from underneath
• The 20EMA (purple) which it tested Thursday and held
• And it retested the previous weekly downtrend line

This zone acted as a launch point earlier in the month and may now serve as a short-term shelf. Friday’s candle closed green, and while volume isn’t elevated, it does suggest buyers are interested here…at least for now.

2. Consolidation beneath the recent high
Since hitting a high just under 66, HIMS has moved sideways to lower in a broadening range, defined by wicks in both directions. I’ve marked this with two descending dotted lines forming a kind of short-term wedge or drift.
• Price is still below the newly drawn weekly uptrend line, which is steeper and needs more time to confirm

Until price moves firmly above 60 or breaks below 54, this remains a consolidation zone within a larger uptrend.

3. Zooming out: Still holding higher structure
Despite the sharp swings, HIMS is still holding structure.
• We have not taken out the May 10 low
• The daily 20EMA is rising and has not been violated
• The weekly chart (not pictured) still shows a higher low from the April base

If HIMS breaks and holds above the wedge, a retest of 60–62 could be in play. If 54 fails, 49 is the next zone of interest, followed by 38 (my lower probability). I closed my options on this on Tuesday and put on a stock position as an early entry/lower risk play.

Overall for the coming week, I am bullish but cautious. I want to see the pullback finish and for momentum to start shifting back to the upside before adding any new positions Right now I’m just letting the charts do their thing and giving this consolidation some room to play out.

Take care of yourselves and each other. ❤️ See y’all next week!