Going going...?

I’ve been doing my breakdowns each week using bullish, bearish, and neutral scenarios as a way to stay objective. It’s still a solid framework, but lately I’ve been testing out some write-ups that focus more on levels and structure, without always fitting them into those categories. As I focus more on really trading the daily chart timeframe, I want to make my analysis more dynamic. For example, a pullback doesn’t mean I’m not bullish, it just means there may be a temporary change in direction before continuation to the upside. So this week, my analysis on both the market and my stocks will be a little different than my usual bullish, bearish, neutral approach.

S&P 500 Outlook

The S&P closed the week at 5,958, continuing its climb along a steep uptrend that’s been in place since mid-April. While momentum remains bullish, we’re now entering a zone where digestion or short-term pullbacks wouldn’t be surprising, not because of weakness, but because of how extended we may be. After a strong run in either direction, there is almost always a period of digestion before the market decides on its next move.

Here's what I’m watching:

1. Price is pressed against the steepest uptrend line
Price continues to ride the most aggressive uptrend drawn from April. This can resolve in one of two ways:

• Price continues to grind higher along this line

• Or it breaks below and potentially pulls back toward the outer uptrend line, which has been tested more frequently and still supports the broader trend

Because the current slope is so sharp, any shift will likely stand out quickly. If we lose this angle, I’ll be watching how price behaves around the next key support zone along the outer trendline.

2. Approaching 6,000 with converging resistance

• Last week’s action established a higher high, which shifted the slope of resistance

• The new downtrend line is less steep than the last and may not act as strongly

• I’ve also drawn a shaded zone to capture the cluster of touch points between November and March, which includes both support and resistance reactions from earlier this year

• A break through 6,000 could open the door for a move toward 6,145, the February pivot high

• Around 6,145, I’d expect price to either pause before breaking through, or break above and come back to retest from the top

• When we reach major levels like this, price often dances around the area, trading above and below without clear direction before resolving

• That process can happen quickly or take a couple of weeks depending on momentum and volume

3. 5,860 is a key confluence zone to watch on pullbacks
If we get a pullback this week, 5,860 stands out as the first area of interest because it brings together:

• The inner uptrend line, which has held through several touch points

• A horizontal support and resistance level

• And the 10EMA, which is now rising into that same area

We could even see a gap down to or near this zone early in the week, especially if Friday’s strength fades a bit into Monday. This wouldn’t necessarily signal weakness, but it would make the reaction here even more important to watch.

Because this level has multiple layers it may attract a strong response. If price holds and buyers step in, it could become the base for another leg higher. If it breaks cleanly, I’ll be watching for a move into the next zones like 5,784 or 5,705, where structure and moving averages start to stack again.

4. 5,700 to 5,740 is a deeper support zone with higher timeframe confluence
If the 5,860 zone doesn’t hold, the next area I’ll be watching is between 5,700 and 5,740. This zone brings together:

• The outer uptrend line that’s been guiding the broader April–May move

• The March pivot shelf, where the last breakout effort paused before launching

• The top of the April gap-up

• And most importantly, the 10EMA, 20EMA, and 50SMA on the weekly chart (screenshot below), which are all starting to converge near 5,700

This creates a higher-timeframe confluence zone that could act as a stronger platform for continuation if we pull back that far. It’s less about a single bounce point and more about a structural band where I’d expect price to either stabilize or make a more decisive move.

5. A 200-point range from here could serve as consolidation
If momentum slows, we could see the market spend some time churning in a 200ish point range from where we are now, both slightly above and below current price. This wouldn’t change the broader structure, it would just be the market taking a breather after a strong run.

I’ll be watching for:

• Back-and-forth movement around key lines

• Smaller daily candles or overlapping sessions

• A slower pace that could either reset the trend or turn into something more corrective

Quick Review

• Price continues to ride the steepest uptrend line from April, but if that breaks, the outer trendline becomes the next level to watch.

• The 6,000 to 6,145 zone includes layered resistance from recent highs and is where I’d expect either a pause or retest before any continuation.

• 5,860 marks a high-confluence support zone, with the inner uptrend line, prior structure, and the 10EMA all meeting there, a common spot for reactions, especially if we gap into it.

• 5,700 to 5,740 is a deeper structural zone supported by the outer trendline and weekly moving averages, and could be revisited on a larger pullback.

• A 200-point range above and below current price could act as consolidation, especially if momentum cools. I’m watching for price to dance between trendlines and resistance as that unfolds.

HIMS Update

1. Breakout through the weekly downtrend line, followed by wide-range consolidation
On Monday, May 13, HIMS gapped up above the previous weekly downtrend line and continued higher into Wednesday. Price then stayed within a broad intraday range marked by wicks in both directions, reflecting short-term indecision. This type of price action is characteristic for HIMS. The swings are large, and sharp pullbacks often recover within a few sessions.

2. Price is now sitting just beneath the most recent downtrend line
Wednesday’s high created a new higher high, which flattens the slope of the most recent downtrend line. This line now runs just above current price and intersects with the shaded area between $64.50 and $66. That zone has already triggered a short-term rejection.

• A break and hold above this zone could open the door for price to re-enter the upper range toward its all-time high

• If price stalls or rolls over here, the uptrend could shift pace and retest one of the lower trendlines

3. The 54–57 zone is the first area of interest if price pulls back
This range includes the start of the most recent gap-up at 54.35 and also aligns with the previous weekly downtrend line.

• If price rolls over, this would be the first area I’d expect to act as support

• There are multiple layers of confluence here, including the outer uptrend line, the horizontal level at 54.35, and the 10EMA, which is now rising into this zone

• If price breaks lower, the next area I’d be watching is between 50 and 45, where price may stabilize before making a bigger decision

4. A break above $66 brings the upper range back into view
If HIMS can move above Wednesday’s high, the next level to watch is the all-time high region.

• The stock’s all-time high is $72.98, with a high-close day at $68.74

• This creates a wide upper band, where price could accelerate quickly or pause around prior highs

• It’s common for price to trade above and below these zones before resolving with direction, depending on how momentum builds

Closing Thoughts

I put on a new position in HIMS using my pullback strategy on Thursday. If you’re in this trade, whether from the breakout or somewhere along the way, here are a few things I’m keeping in mind right now:

• Even though I liked the pullback and saw it as an opportunity, I’m also aware that HIMS has already been running strong since it’s breakout on April 29. This doesn’t mean we can’t go higher, but after a strong run up, we may see another pullback or some chop.

• Stocks like HIMS, specifically after sharp runs, don’t give much of a heads-up if they’re going to flip to the downside. They typically gap down or engage in a sell off versus a gradual roll over or friendly chop. A gap down may invalidate my Thursday entry depending on how it plays out.

• Sometimes a clue for a potential change in momentum is long upper wicks on long candles, especially if 1) the wicks occur near resistance and 2) the price is extended (extended is subjective but typically means a lot of air between the price and the 10EMA or similar). If we don’t open with a gap down this week, but start to see that kind of intraday action instead, that may be an early sign that momentum is starting to shift.

Whatever this week brings, just a reminder to honor your stops, trust your alerts, and let the charts lead the way. The market is full of infinite opportunities and I promise there will always be another trade…a note to you and to myself 😅 😉 🥰