Earnings Season Coming in Hot

Market Outlook

The S&P popped through last week’s downtrend line, back above its 10 and 20 EMAs, and closed strong on Friday near 5,686. On the weekly chart, we can see how it pulled back ever so slightly from its rising 50SMA (around 5,700). This is a key area that may act as resistance (or a place to retest if it rises above it) in the short term.

On the daily chart, the index remains in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, though the broader downtrend is still intact. Overhead, we’re approaching the 200SMA and a previous rejection area from March, both of which may lead to some sideways movement or a pullback.

Bullish

• A pop above the weekly 50SMA and a continued move higher that may pause or pullback around 5,745 -5,790.

• We could start a move after first pulling back to the recent daily uptrend line as a reset before continuation.

Neutral

• Price may consolidate between 5,650 and 5,790 digesting these last few weeks of gains.

• Sideways action would be a natural digestion zone and could allow trendlines and MAs to catch up.

Bearish

• A pullback could start with a move to the daily 50SMA (~5,580) and the short-term uptrend line.

• Further downside targets include:
  • The 10EMA/20EMA zone (~5,520)
  • The 5,460 support area

• A deeper breakdown would require a clear shift in overall sentiment.

Key Points

• Watch what the index does around the weekly 50SMA.

• Price is also nearing the 200SMA and a prior rejection area, which could act as resistance.

• The short-term uptrend remains intact, with buyers still in control.

• I do think this rally could continue a bit further, but I’m also anticipating a potential slowdown toward the end of the month, especially as we head into the summer months, which historically come with lighter trading volume.

• This lines up with seasonal tendencies that many seasoned traders and investors watch closely. Here's a quick excerpt from the Stock Trader’s Almanac that puts it into perspective:

Stock Spotlight: HIMS

HIMS had a sharp move off its recent base, breaking out of a multi-week range between 24 and 30. It cleared several resistance levels and is now trading above all major moving averages on both the daily and weekly charts (a strong technical signal).

HIMS is set to report earnings Monday and a strong reaction in either direction is possible. Here are a few ideas for the upcoming earnings call:

Scenario 1: Gaps Up, Then Pulls Back

• HIMS gaps up toward the 46 zone (a key retest level) and sells off shortly after (like RDDT or SOFI).

• A pullback to ~38 would be healthy and could offer a new base or re-entry opportunity.

• I’d watch to see if it holds that level and starts to rebuild.

Scenario 2: Gaps Down, Then Stabilizes

• If the stock opens below Friday’s close but doesn’t continue to sell off (like AAPL).

• I expect some consolidation, possibly near 30–33, depending on the size of the move.

• This wouldn’t necessarily be bearish as HIMS has a history of spiking down and recovering, and the broader structure remains strong unless 30 breaks with momentum.

• I’d watch for a base to form and volume behavior to stabilize before reloading.

Scenario 3: Opens Neutral, Then Moves

• If HIMS opens slightly higher or lower.

• Price starts to build in one direction or another.

• If it drifts down, I can see it slow building the “handle” along the weekly downtrend line, of the cup structure I see on the daily.

I’ll let the reaction play out before deciding if and where to re-up. I’ve got a few runners on only (I’ve been tweaking my playbook around earnings so that’s all I am allowed atm). Once things settle, I’m expecting a strong move…and for now, my bias is to the upside.

I hope you all crush your trades this week. I have a few names I’m watching besides HIMS—AAPL, RDDT, SOFI, and AMZN, as these all have come back to retest their EMAs or uptrend lines. My main focus is to recognize when I need to stop trading once this rally settles down, since that’s how I typically give back profits. 😅 😩 

Outside of trading I will be writing for the relaunch of my virtual assistant placement business matchmadeva.com, working on a few things for my place in Wilmington shor.by/fsl and hopefully 🤞🏽 sneaking in a few hours on Wrightsville Beach. ☀️🌊

What are y’all up to? I would love to hear from you and how your trading (or investing) is going. I wish you all peace and a blessed week!