SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats
High: 6,724.12
Low: 6,555.07
Close: 6,664.00
Change: +1.70%
ATH: 6,764.58 (Oct 9)

The index spent the week trading inside that sharp sell-off candle from Friday, October 10th, bouncing between 6,600 and 6,700 without committing to a direction. I shaded that zone in blue on the chart because it’s been an area of noise since mid-September. We popped above it briefly at the beginning of October, and then sold off. This hundred-point stretch is where both sides keep showing up, but neither has won control over the other. Buyers are defending the 6,600 area, the May uptrend line, and the 30 SMA, while sellers continue to show up just under 6,700. The tug-of-war hasn’t resolved yet.

Zooming out to the weekly, SPX closed up 1.7% at 6,664, reclaiming the 5 EMA, but is still sitting below last week’s breakdown area. The broader trend is still technically up.

How Next Week Could Play Out

Sideways, bullish, bearish…nothing special, but a wait and see kind of week.

1. Continued chop between 6,600 and 6,700
Until we break cleanly above or below this range, sideways volatility remains the base case. These phases can often lead to strong directional follow-through once resolved.

2. Breakout attempt
If buyers can reclaim the ATH and hold it, that opens the door for another shot at new highs, but I’d need to see solid volume and follow-through before trusting it.

3. Breakdown scenario
If 6,600 fails and price can’t reclaim it quickly, supports line up at 6,553 (base of Oct 10 candle and September support), and then somewhere between 6,480 and 6,427.

Earnings season is adding fuel to the volatility without offering much clarity. Some names are reacting positively, while some are stalling or selling off.

As much as I still want a little more downside and to be right about it, the market hasn’t confirmed that yet. Midweek, it looked like we might start to break lower, but Friday gave no follow-through. The environment just continues to be volatile, so the direction right now is just sideways.

Asking Better Questions

Can I process something with you?

This is the first time I’ve had such a hard time recovering from a drawdown. My downward spiral from my own ATH at the end of July really took me out both mentally and physically.

I’ve oscillated between periods of depression, bursts of “you got this” energy, and “is it time to refresh my resume?” moments. It’s WILD how the body and mind can stay in a survival state like this for so long. I used to bounce back so much faster when I’d drawdown in the past, but this time has been different, and sitting with it has been sooooo uncomfortable.

It reminds me of my early twenties when I’d go out way too hard, wake up with a massive hangover, swear I’d never do it again, and by the next weekend I was right back at it…heels on, drink in hand, having made a full recovery by Sunday brunch 💃🏽. Now? One hangover will wipe me out for a week.

That’s kind of how this season has felt, harder to recover from. And I know the stakes are higher, because I chose this. I decided to trade full-time without the safety net of a day job, and I stepped back into a public competition.

So yeah, it’s different when you don’t have a steady paycheck coming in, or when you’re putting your numbers out there for everyone to see. But it’s not even about the pressure itself; it’s what the pressure revealed: my compulsive patterns of revenge trading and overtrading, were never resolved (nor better controlled), they just now have nowhere to hide.

The Shift from Why to What

Over the last few months, I’ve tried to understand why it’s taken me so long to bounce back. I’ve turned over every angle, looking for every reason, and desperate to find the lesson, so that the pain wouldn’t be all for nothing.

And, I’ve realized that if I’d bounced back quickly, I wouldn’t have learned what I needed to learn about myself…about how intense my compulsive patterns can be when I’m under pressure, and how that level of emotional volatility isn’t sustainable if I want to continue to earn a full time income from trading. I think I needed to really see that, not just conceptually, but feel it in my bones.

But…

At some point last week, the questions I was asking started to change. I stopped digging into why and started asking what. What’s actually going to help me get my footing again? What needs my attention right now? What can I do today that gets me back into the mindset of the trader I want to be? This helped me break from my negative loop, and start to repair.

It’s not acceptable to me to keep living months of my life in an anxious, survival-state spiral, all over trying to earn in trading, when there’s so much more to life out there, and so soooo many other ways to earn a living that don’t cost me my peace. I’m not saying I’d ever give it up; I don’t think that’s the answer for me as every job comes with its own kind of stress. But I have to find a way to do this without breaking myself in the process, and prioritizing my mental and emotional health first.

So that’s where I am right now, focused on the what. What can I do to move forward and reclaim my peace and profits? Easing myself back into the be state, that version of me who trades with steadiness, eats well, exercises, studies, keeps her mental and physical space in order, and makes decisions from clarity, not fear.

And I know this works, because I’ve been here before, even if it wasn’t to this extent, but close. Earlier this year, I really didn’t think I’d make it past 50K, but when I shifted my focus to the present and the future, when I stopped obsessing over what had already happened and started acting like the version of me who already had it, I found my flow again and hit 100K within months.

That’s the energy I’m rebuilding from, not the frantic comeback, but the quiet return. A return to myself first and foremost, and then profits. And as I keep going, I’ll keep sharing what helps me recover fully, and what may help you too, if you ever find yourself here.

Final Thoughts and Notes

If I’d leave you with anything today, it would be to take a moment and really look at how trading is affecting you and your day to day. If you love what you see, great, if not, make adjustments, but set a date to reassess and ask yourself honestly if it’s something you want to continue to pursue. Nothing in this world is worth your peace, and nothing should consume you so much you can’t stay in the present and really soak in the precious gift of the present.

Thanks so much for tuning in! ‘Til next time!