Breakout or Breakdown?

I started this newsletter as a way to stay accountable…to show up, study, refine, and keep learning. And, I also started it to inspire anyone else who's trying to make this work. Especially one friend in particular…you know who you are 😉. If this helps even one person keep going, then that’s enough for me. ❤️

But there are definitely layers to sharing things publicly, like the subconscious pressure to perform…I want to be a leader in this space. And I know being a leader doesn’t mean I’ll always be right…it means always being real.

I’ve definitely been off my game these last two weeks. It’s no surprise unfortunately. My weaknesses show up not only when the market is choppy, but also after I’ve had a good run. And because I share a lot of my thoughts and analysis publicly, I sometimes start feeling the pressure that comes with that. Like, if I grew my account by 100%, could I grow 50% more? And yeah 150% is impressive, but what about 200%?…

A vicious trap and a runaway narrative that creeps in if I’m not careful. And then suddenly I’m making trading decisions based on that story…not based on what’s actually in front of me. It’s like…woman…you know how to trade. Just relax and do your thing.

This weekend, I’ve been rereading my plan and reminding myself to lead with gratitude for what I’ve already accomplished. I look forward to giving you some personal updates soon, but for now I’m head down, staying focused, and continuing to share what I see on the charts.

S&P 500 Analysis

We’re still in a confirmed weekly downtrend (though the decline has been at a pause), and the daily chart is showing signs of indecision. The sharp bounce on April 9th created a large green candle, and price action since then has been stuck inside that day’s range, forming inside bars and signaling continued indecision.

🎥 To watch my walk through of this, check out my video here on TradingView.

Key Points:

• Trendlines: We remain under multiple downtrend lines (from both the weekly and daily charts), as well as all major moving averages.

• Resistance: The April 9 high around 5458 has now been rejected twice.

• Support: We’re currently holding above the short-term uptrend line off the April 7 pivot near 5265, with buyers defending this level for several days.

• Neutral Zone: Until we break below this rising trendline or reclaim the EMAs and downtrend lines, we remain in a choppy, sideways range.

Risk increases when the markets and stocks have yet to pick a direction. Stay patient, watch for a break in either direction, and maintain proper risk size and profit/loss targets when you choose to participate.

Stock Spotlight: CVNA

Focusing on the daily chart, since that’s where I base my trades. CVNA is currently forming a clean base following a sharp move up from its recent low. The structure resembles a Wyckoff spring (a shakeout move that undercuts support before reclaiming it with strength).

After reclaiming the moving averages, price has now settled into a tight consolidation. This kind of structure often precedes a directional move, and we’re now at a decision point.

Support and Structure

• Short-term uptrend line is clearly visible on the daily chart.

• Price is currently holding above the 10EMA, 20EMA, and 50SMA, and all three are turning upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure.

• Recent support is defined by multiple wicks around the 192–194 area, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.

• Still no break of the weekly downtrend.

Bullish Scenario

• A break and hold above the weekly downtrend line would confirm buyer strength and support continuation to the upside.

• First areas to watch for potential pauses:

  • The declining 200SMA

  • The 231 zone, which marked a previous pivot high

• If those levels clear with strength and volume, next resistance zones come into play near 267 and potentially 292.

Bearish Scenario

• If price fails to break out and instead loses the short-term uptrend line:

  • Watch for a drop back toward 174

  • Below that, a test of 161–150 is possible

• This would also likely require weakness in the broader market to gain traction.

Neutral Scenario

• Continuation of sideways chop between the weekly downtrend resistance and support near 193.

• This scenario keeps both bullish and bearish setups in play while the market decides.

The structure is bullish overall. CVNA is holding above key moving averages with upward momentum, and it's pressing into resistance with tight consolidation, often a sign of strength. However, the weekly downtrend line is still in control. A confirmed breakout would shift momentum decisively in favor of buyers, especially if supported by broader market strength.

A move’s coming…whether a breakout or a breakdown. There’s no need to predict or feel pressured to get in heavy. We can sit out, test with smaller size, take profits sooner, or add more later. The market provides infinite opportunities. ✨