This week, I leaned a little too bullish and was slow in cutting my positions on Friday, giving back my gains from the rally. I’m not sharing this for sympathy. I’m sharing it because this is where I’m at on my journey, still too green to have spotted the tells, or still recouping my confidence. Either way, there is work to do. Doing this professionally means adjusting quickly when the market hands me a lesson.

So my adjustment going forward is simple: I’m ramping up my chart study, tightening my candle reading, and trading less while I rebuild that “I know what I’m seeing” feeling.

I’m narrowing my focus to only trading SPX (at least the next 30 days). This means smaller size, fewer trades, fewer moving parts, and less context switching. I’ve also stopped trying to fit myself into a timeframe label. If the market is trending, I’ll swing. If it’s choppy, I’ll trade the setup in front of me and close at the end of the day or the next day. My focus is to fine-tune my skill of reading and taking advantage of price action.

SPX Review and Outlook

EOW Stats

High: 6,903.46
Low: 6,801.79
Close: 6,827.42
Change: -0.63%
ATH: 6,920.34 (Oct 29)

Volatility expanded after the Fed meeting, with buyers trying to break the range, and failing. On the daily, I had a “ntb” level marked, which is my shorthand for “needs-to-break”. This was also a psychological area. Friday sold hard from that zone, indicating that sellers are still showing up when price pushes into key resistance.

On the hourly, I’m watching the more immediate levels so I can stay anchored as the week unfolds.

Levels I’m watching

• 6,900 is still the big ceiling. We tried, and we got rejected.

• 6,850-ish is the top of my “noise” box, (noise being that whole messy zone of indecision we’ve been living in since November). If price gets back above that area and holds, we may stay in the 6,850 to 6,900 range.

• 6,800 is first line of defense. If it holds, we may stay in chop mode. If it loses it, I can see the market opening the door to a few consecutive down days.

• 6,770 is the next level down if 6,800 breaks and does not reclaim quickly. After that, the next support levels are 6,695 and 6,630.

I’ve been wondering though, what if we’re just going to chop til the new year, with just short range bound opportunities, but nothing more major than that? Anyway, here are a few key economic events worth mentioning, as they may act as catalysts:

• Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (Delayed) and Unemployment Rate

• Thursday, Dec 18, 8:30 AM ET – CPI and Core CPI

With jobs Tuesday and CPI Thursday, I’m assuming faster moves and sharper reversals around those windows, and I’m building my plan around levels first, narratives second. I like the clarity of 6,800 as the pivot, above it we manage chop, below it we respect downside momentum.

Process > Emotion.

Stay grounded,

Emanuela

P.S. Thanks to everyone who dropped me a note last week! Really appreciate it and always love hearing from you!